IMO, it's calories in, calories out. The quality/nature of those calories can speed you or slow you (again, IMO), but for me the bottom line is the calories (including the expenditure through exercise). And the moral support on FitDay!
"If you drop an egg, you don't say, 'Oh, shoot' and drop the other 11, do you?"
-Source unknown, but obviously brilliant
Reached goal 4/16/2010...but kind of afraid to look these days