There's nothing inherently wrong with carbs. I tend to keep about a 40/30/30 carb/protein/fat mix which has worked well.
The big question about will you or won't you lose weight is "are you burning more calories than you take in"? With the info you've given us, we don't know. You need to calculate your average daily calorie burn, then choose a level of calorie intake that will provide a good daily calorie deficit. Of course, the trick is to balance the amount of the deficit--it needs to be high enough to provide the desired speed of weight loss, while at the same time being low enough that you are not constantly hungry (and thus prone to give up or "cheat").
The actual mix of your calories is highly personal--many people respond better to various levels of carbs/protein/fat. You need to adjust these to what is best for you.
47 M 5'8"
May 4, 2010...... 440? lbs. (Start FitDay Size 60 Jeans)
June 19, 2010.... 393 lbs. (First Weigh-in)
June 19, 2011.... 229 lbs. (164 lbs. gone in one year :-)
Current Weight... 185 lbs. (Size 36 Jeans)
Next Goal 169 lbs. (07/04/12)
Ultimate Goal 165 lbs. (12/31/12)
The best exercises for weight loss are Fork Putdowns and Table Pushaways.