hi,
i'm a distance runner, so i'm doing different work than you are doing; the caloric balance generated by fitday seems to work for me. my weight has been very constant over several years, and fitday's calculators show i'm usually within a few 100 calories in my input vs output levels.
i'm trying to drop several pounds during my next marathon training period, and i will be keeping an eye on my weight and my average caloric deficit... so i'll have a quantitative measure of the error in fitday's calculation during the next few weeks.
best wishes
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